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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.